What prompted me to share my perspective today was Nortel’s announcement that they are dropping WiMAX in favor of LTE. At first blush, many may wonder why this matters. It matters a lot. Nortel is one of the major suppliers of base stations for cellular carriers all over the world. Their announcement makes it clear that their customers are asking for LTE and that they aren’t asking for WiMAX. In short, WiMAX is perhaps a niche technology. It may be a stepping stone to something better later, but even with the recent $13B WiMAX investment news, WiMAX appears to be headed for the “magnet bubble” award of wireless. (You don’t remember the magnet bubble memory hype? Exactly my point, nobody else does either).

In my own travels, I frequently ask those in the cellular industry about WiMAX. The consistent answer I hear is that WiMAX gets a lot of ink due to the dollars Intel has invested in it so far. The fact that Intel is building a WiMAX capable chipset, but that it isn’t gaining broad market traction versus the alternative – an incremental upgrade to LTE – is something to consider. Interestingly, at the recent Computex show I attended in Taipei, Intel put on a big show touting WiMAX. The performance on the tradeshow floor however was rather embarrassing. It just didn’t seem ready for prime time. Ultimately the fate of WiMAX will be left to the cellular carriers and not pundits or industry observers. However Nortel’s announcement is most likely a foreshadowing of things to come. The operators are apparently voting with their checkbooks – driving Nortel to build LTE base stations in favor of WiMAX. I wonder if the entourage around the WiMAX emperor at Intel noticed? Seems there is a chilly breeze out there.