WiMAX Directions: CES: Why Apple really does need a WiMAX iSlate Jan 6, 2010 – By Rethink Research
Traditionally, the hi-tech year kicks off with the Consumer Electronics Show
(CES) jamboree in Las Vegas in the first week of January. Until recently,
this huge event has been merely a sideshow for the wireless and broadband
industries, until, of course, wireless and broadband started to be
incorporated into many of the consumer gadgets on display. Mobility has now
crept into the front ranks – several handset majors will launch phones
this year, Google will outline its latest mobile moves, Intel will talk as
much about its netbook and WiMAX products as its PC processors. One important
group appears not to have noticed the wireless tide at CES – the
carriers. With the eyes of Verizon, AT&T and others firmly focused on
traditional network events like CTIA, the coast is clear for Clearwire, which
will be the only major wireless provider in evidence.
This gives Clearwire a good opportunity to show off the capabilities of its
WiMAX network (it will blanket Las Vegas and offer rental devices for $12.50
a day). But more importantly, it indicates why the new wave of broadband
wireless operators are in tune with the changed nature of their business, in
a way that the traditional giants are not (yet). CES should be important to
carriers because they need to stop arguing over which network customers will
prefer to use, and instead look at the devices they will buy, almost all of
which will contain wireless connectivity in future.
At CTIA, operators will debate the pros and cons of 3G yesterday, WiMAX today
or LTE tomorrow. At CES, vendors will show off an array of form factors, all
sporting fast access to the web via intuitive multimedia user interfaces.
Which will have more impact on how the mobile web works in the new decade,
and who will profit from that? The answer is obvious.
The importance of Clearwire’s high profile at the show, then, is not
really about its choice of WiMAX, although this is indeed the first of the
truly broadband mobile standards, and the first really equipped to support
the open web model. It is more about sending a signal that the WiMAX
community is ready for the new age of ubiquitous wireless, cloud services and
anywhere internet access. This community is dominated by carriers seeking to
steal a march on their rivals by taking an early position in this new world,
whether directly or via a partnership with a WiMAX network owner (like
Sprint’s with Clearwire). And this ambition has already driven the
new-look players to form alliances with a far wider ecosystem than was
necessary in 3G – the sort of ecosystem represented heavily at CES. In
other words, Clearwire has a network suited to the new age. More importantly,
it understands the model.
What will we actually see from WiMAX at CES, apart from the chance to test
out the technology via the Las Vegas network? As always with this show, the
most alluring rumors are unlikely to materialize, notably the ‘WiMAX
iSlate’. Not only will Apple almost certainly wait until the end of
January to unveil its much anticipated tablet product, there is no guarantee
the gadget will support WiMAX in its first iteration (though it will have
Wi-Fi, and so could be connected to fast WiMAX via products like
Clearwire’s Cradlepoint router). However, the speculation – which
mounted over the holiday – that iSlate would have a WiMAX option is
worth mentioning, because it shows how a rising body of opinion sees this as
a dream combination.
In particular, it would give Apple the opportunity to try out a more open
model, without completely disrupting its iPhone partnerships. It is clear
that the very closed approach the vendor adopted for its iconic iPhone is
starting to creak at the seams. This is seen in three respects, all relevant
to the very different model WiMAX carriers tend to favor, and for which their
network technology is optimized.
One, Apple has largely abandoned exclusive carrier deals and is chasing
greater market share and an any-carrier approach. The next logical step would
be to open its devices completely and extend its reach to any network
technology. Two, it is already part of the way there with iPod Touch, which
runs on Wi-Fi but not 3G, and is almost as popular as the iPhone. It is a
very small step to a WiMAX version, whether a Touch or a Slate format.
Three, the iPhone’s biggest problem has been the inadequacy of the 3G
networks to support the kind of web-heavy usage patterns for which consumers
choose the handset in the first place. Two of Apple’s most prominent
carrier partners, AT&T and O2 UK, have blamed smartphones for a rising
surge of network outages and poor quality of service, and they are not alone.
Clearly, an even more bandwidth hungry device and interface, such as
‘iSlate’ promises to be, will need to find an open, high
capacity, superfast network – one that can show off the product’s
capabilities to maximum advantage. As WiMAX systems expand in the urban
heartlands where iPhone usage is concentrated, Apple would be foolish not to
come knocking.
Indeed, Clearwire has been teasing the markets for some time about this. An
image on its web site over the holiday appeared to show a mock-up of the
putative iSlate, among other examples of ideal devices for a mobile broadband
network. And at the 4G World show in September, CEO Bill Morrow’s theme
was that the iPhone was on the wrong network, because 3G was not built for
true broadband speeds and usage patterns. He even showed video of two
iPhones, side-by-side in a moving car, each accessing Google Earth and
streamed videos, one via AT&T’s HSPA and the other via WiMAX (using
the Wi-Fi connection and a Clearwire router). Unsurprisingly, the former
device showed far greater levels of choppiness and delay.
Morrow predicted that smartphones would appear at Clearwire after the middle
of 2010, and would typically sport PC-type functionality such as gigahertz
processors, HD video, 3D imaging and 64Gb of internal memory. They would also
have inherently mobile features such as location awareness, voice and object
recognition and mobile VoIP.
That kind of device lies at the heart of the mobile broadband revolution, and
therefore of this year’s CES show. The combination outlined by Morrow
– high performance, persistent connectivity, mobile features – is
key to the new generation of products and behavior. Among the examples is the
new breed of web devices that will be the heirs to the netbooks, ereaders and
superphones – MIDs, aka smartbooks, aka mobile tablets. These will be
heavily geared to constant broadband access, web services and the cloud,
though some will also have significant local storage. Among their critical
features will be instant power-up, full-day battery life, innovative user
interfaces harnessing touch and voice recognition ... but not necessarily 3G.
It is interesting that it is Freescale – with its roots firmly in the
traditional cellular world – that is voicing this 3G-skeptic opinion
most loudly. More so even than Intel, whose integration of WiMAX into its
future MID platforms is advanced, well established and straight in line with
its overall strategy. Freescale, which debuted its own smartbook reference
platform at CES, has not yet included WiMAX, though it said it was very
interested in doing so. But it offers two options, one with 3G and Wi-Fi, one
with Wi-Fi only, and expects the latter to be the more popular. As Apple has
found with iPod Touch, 3G is often failing to deliver what people expect from
a mobile broadband experience, and Wi-Fi is frequently a more satisfactory
alternative. This is partly a battery issue, since 3G consume up to five
times more power than Wi-Fi; and partly down to performance and cost. In
2010, the majority of smartbooks will not run 3G, believes Freescale, and
Wi-Fi will only be eclipsed by the faster and more controlled 4G connections,
such as WiMAX.
The same realization will strike the makers of all the new wireless device
types, from broadband enabled media players to new generation ereaders. These
vendors are not tied to carrier subsidies or walled garden models; indeed,
most have come from the consumer electronics or PC worlds where users do fund
their own devices, but in return get open access and set demanding standards
for their overall experience. Even Apple, itself a product of this
non-carrier world, has discovered the darker side of the traditional mobile
model, in its flirtation with cellco walled gardens. And Samsung’s
WiMAX MID, Mondi - soon to be followed, we hear, by a similar product for
Sprint from LG – shows that the most 3G-oriented of firms are adapting
to the open world too, as they seek the fast connections that will make their
gadgets shine.
Increasingly, those gadgets will not be merely phones. Shipments of consumer
electronics devices with embedded mobile broadband (excluding handsets) are
forecast to increase by a stunning 55 times between 2008 and 2014, according
to ABI Research forecasts. That would see volumes of ereaders, digital
cameras and camcorders, PMPs and mobile games devices reaching 58m in 2014.
So while many carriers shun CES as being beyond their mainstream priorities,
there is yet another indication of why WiMAX cannot be ignored. Nothing to do
with the modulation, the Mbps, the OFDM, as discussed at ‘proper’
wireless events – and everything to do with enabling the new web
experience that users know they want, but cannot achieve with current
networks and operator models.
WiMAX Directions: CES: Why Apple really does need a WiMAX iSlate
